2010 Peak Rut Predictions by Charles J. Alsheimer

[Normous]

Every fall season I look forward to the September or October addition of Deer and Deer Hunting Magazine to review the seasons Deer Rut Predictions and plan my seasonal vacation accordingly. Mr. Alsheimer is a deer biologist of 35 years and is well respected, he can also seen on TV's Deer & Deer Hunting TV show.

According to Charles, the unusually late full moon of November will make 2010 much different rut than 2009.

The 2010 rutting moon will be 3 weeks later than in 2009 in the North (above the 38th), this will begin November 21st and last through the end of the month, this will be the peak breeding time. Some breeding may take place from Nov. 1st on, but most during the later part of November.

Overview predictions in brief:

2010 Sweet spot:
Minor - October 22 - November 3rd
Major - November 20 - November 30th
Low spot - Nov. 7 - Nov. 14th

Variables:
- High hunt pressure is a big rut suppressor.
- Hot temperatures cause deer activity to slow.
- Heavy rain or snow may temporarily slow deer activity.

May everyone enjoy an exciting fall deer season.

[agingcrossbower]

Could someone please tell me where the 38th parallel is in relationship to Wisconsin. HELP!

[Normous]

Your well above it in Wi, it runs Charlotte NC toTulsa Okla and to Amarillo,Texas.

[B-Logger]

With all due respect to Charles, I've never found his predictions to be all that accurate. Therefore I'll still go on believing the rut will start basically the same time every year; that is, within a few days from year to year. In our area that means November 15 for the peak, give or take a few days.

For sure in most of our state if his prediction was to be true this year there would be very, very few bucks around by November 20 to do any breeding. Most of the young deer have been shot and there are very few that make it past 2 1/2 years. Of course once in a while one will live through it all and become a really nice racked buck but they are few and far between in our area. Therefore, we tend to hunt what some call small bucks, what some call medium sized bucks and others call them big bucks. It is all in how one looks at the situation.

[See4miles]

I respect old Charles and have never turned down a chance to read his works on the Whitetail. But I have to respectfully disagree on this one. I believe the rut is controlled 100% by the photoperiod. The most I think it can vary is a few days, a week at the most.
I've been making my own observations for years and I live in a place where I'm able to do that very thing.
Some say that hot weather will stall the rut in cooler climates such as my home State Michigan, but I doubt that as well. By my observations, they make up for a hot day by doing doubletime at night.
I set my vacations by a couple factors that correlate with moon phases but I'm a little gun-shy to discuss that here as I don't want a 100 posts telling me I'm full of it. LOL.......

[OkXbowHunter]

I've read CJA's articles for a long time now. The only thing more amazing than his theories are his photographs! I do respect his findings, but I'm convinced that they are not chiseled in stone for all areas of the country, certainly not mine.

Like See4Miles above, I too believe that the rut is triggered by a few more factors than just the Moon phase. I hunt around the Tulsa area and pretty much year in and year out, the time from Nov. 10 to 15 is the magic time. The bucks will be with Does.

The time around Halloween is when they are in the Searching phase and we'll still find some Bucks tending Does during our Rifle season (which occurs in late November) some years. Perhaps the Moon phase affects Buck more-so in New York than they do in Southern Climates, I dunno. I'd have to hunt and observe them up North for a few years.

Since See4Miles won't share his theories, I'll be the whipping boy and post some of mine.

I do believe hot weather suppresses the rut. A week of hot weather will shut 'em down (hey, they have their Winter coats on ya know!). A day or so in the 80's will just make 'em miserable like it does us.

Whenever the full moon coincides with the peak of the rut, it's been my experience you'd better be in your stand all day. You'll never know when those rascals will be moving.

If a full moon happens in Oct. I don't expect too much activity during daylight hours and most of that will be midday. I've confirmed this with trail cameras.

I also believe hunting pressure, or I should say, High amounts of hunting pressure, affects the rut and can shut it down.

Calling and using scents during the peak of the rut is a gamble. Smaller bucks that have had their butt's kicked will be leary of coming into calling or Doe in Heat scent.

The same is true for the Does. If they smell another Doe in heat, many will avoid her because they don't want to be pestered by a Buck. If they're not close to coming-in, they tend to not like being hound dogged or having an antler stuck in their arse...go figure...those snobby Does!

This is why I try and hunt the Does during the Peak of the Rut and call very sparingly if at all. I don't use any scent during the Peak either.

Now, Pre and Post-Rut is a different story. I find calls and scents work pretty good during that time.

The days leading up to the Peak of the Rut and the days immediately after are some of the best for me. That's because most big bucks have already herded their Doe(s) into the thick cover during the Peak to wait on her to come in if she hasn't already. However, the pre and post ruts are when the Bucks are moving looking for a Hot Doe. It's my favorite time of year to hunt big Whitetails.

Now having said all of this, I still experiment. And both Does and Bucks are so unpredictable in the Peak of the Rut, you'll never know what will happen. That's why you need to be out there all day!

[See4miles]

OKxBowhunter,
That's good, sound info! Wouldn't challange on a single point.

My theory is no secret, and I'm not the original source, I have just been able to confirm its accuracy thru several years of diligent hunting and observation.

The theory is the rut seems to coincide, (at this latitude anyways) with the a first quarter moon, directly after what is called the harvest moon. More probably toward the tail end of that phase.

I actually take most of my vacation time to hunt during the pre-rut. The bucks are cruising constantly, seeking does that aren't quite ready, and there is heavy daytime movement, even in pressured areas such as I hunt. I feel its a better time to score as hunting during the rut becomes very unpredictable.